What are the odds the Supreme Court will overturn the Court of
Appeal in any randomly selected case coming before it? The Justices may just be more able to provide
that probability analysis after its review of Duran v. U.S. National Bank Association 203 Cal.App.4th 212.
This case, now pending before the Supreme Court, will decide the way
proof is admitted to prove class members properly belong in the class.
In Duran, the issue was the
scope of proof needed to establish an employer’s liability to a class for
non-payment of overtime. The Court
devised its own method of getting to an “efficient” trial method to admit
evidence applicable to all 260 employees:
it randomly selected 21 individuals out of the total population of 260. Based on this random sample, Court ruled the
entire population of employees was misclassified as salaried exempt.
The trial court refused to allow evidence obtained by the defense
from 70 employees that they were not properly in the class overtime eligible
employees. At least these 70, argued the
defense, should have been excluded from the “presumed” class of all 260
employees.
Our conservative Supreme Court may track the thinking of the U.S.
Supreme Court in Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. v. Dukes (2011) 131 S.Ct. 2541 (2011)
that found serious due process concerns with statistical methods that
overlooked significant individual differences among a large part of the population
of all “class” members. But, our Court,
applying our overtime laws, and following class action law for California employees,
will be free to fashion their own class action procedures.
The strange part of the trial court’s decision in the Duran case
was it’s finding of a 95% certainty that each member of the class worked 11.86
overtime hours per week, subject to a relative margin of error of 43%. The logic of this statement is bizarre: “I am
95% certain that my conclusion is true about one-half the time.” I
predict the CA Supreme Court will not let this kind of statistical analysis
result in liability for the all class members, especially where the defense
sought to present 70 declarations from purported class members showing they
were not properly in the class.
Here is Wikiepedia’s short version of the major decision points in
crafting a survey sample to produce a reliable statistical analysis:
§
Defining the population of concern
§
Specifying a sampling frame, a set of items or events possible to
measure
§
Specifying a sampling method for selecting items or
events from the frame
§
Determining the sample size
§
Implementing the sampling plan
§
Sampling and data collecting
In conclusion, I’m 95% certain that I have about a 50% chance of
picking the outcome of the Duran
appeal.
"If the pink slip doesn't fit, get redressed!"